FAQS ABOUT TT Factor

How is the Week TT factor calculated?

The method to find the Week TT Factor is based on comparing the AP Top 25 poll rankings of schools from the previous week to that of the current week.  The difference in the rankings of each school in the AP Top 25 from the previous week to the current week is squared and summed.  The differences are squared as it allocates proportionately higher importance on bigger week-to-week changes in rankings for a given team.  This number is normalized by the average of the lowest and highest possible value of the sum and multiplied by 100.  This gives the possible value of the TT factor to be in the range of 0 to 200.

How is the Season TT factor calculated?

The Season TT factor is calculated after each week to gage how topsy-turvy the season has been so far.  The Season TT factor is calculated using weighted averages of the Week TT factors.  As the season progresses, the Week TT factors are given more weight in the calculation of the Season TT factor because toward the end of the season, an upset of a ranked team is more topsy-turvy than an upset in the beginning of the season when the strength of a ranked team is less established.  The weight given to each Week TT factor in the Season TT factor formula is equal to 1+ 1/10Week number of the season.  For example, the weight given to the Week TT factor of fourth week is 1+1/10*4=1.4.   

How is the Week TT factor calculated if a team was unranked in the previous week?

A team that was unranked in the previous week and gets ranked in the current week is assumed as being the No. 26 team in the previous week.  A higher number is not used to avoid over-inflating the TT factor.

What is the highest possible Week TT factor?

The highest possible Week TT factor is 200.  The highest possible value is obtained when the top 17 teams in the previous week fall out of the top 25 ranks and the 25th to 18th ranked teams of the previous week get ranked 1st to 8th in the current week, respectively.  The chance of this happening is almost nil. 

The highest TT factor reported in the 2002-09 seasons is 72 in Week 4 of the 2009 season.  This was the week when six ranked teams lost to unranked opponents.  Three of these six ranked teams were the Top 6 teams.

What is the lowest possible Week TT factor?

The lowest possible Week TT factor is zero.  The lowest possible Week TT factor would be if all the rankings stayed unchanged from the previous week. Since in this case, the difference in ranking would be zero for all teams, the lowest possible Week TT factor is zero.  Again the chance of this happening is almost nil because we always have match-ups between ranked teams and/or possibility of a ranked team losing to unranked opponent.  The lowest TT factor reported in the 2002-09 seasons is 8 in Week 4 of the 2004 season.

When is a week considered to be highly topsyturvy?

The average Week TT factor for 2002-2007 seasons was 42 and the standard deviation was 12. So, one standard deviation more than the average TT factor is 42+12=54.  We consider weeks with a TT factor of more than 54 to be highly  topsyturvy.

When is a week considered to be very stable?

The average Week TT factor for 2002-2007 seasons is 42 and the standard deviation is 12. So, one standard deviation less than the average TT factor is 42-12=30.  We consider weeks with a TT factor of less than 30 to be very stable in their topsyturvyness.

So what are the categories of topsyturvyness?